The banks are going to loose pasta and stop entering it

More than 3,000 million euros in floor clauses, a risk of 20,193 million in mortgage costs, low interest rates that can only rise ...

If it has to be done, let it be as soon as possible. 2017 will be worse year than 2016, but better than 2018, to hire a mortgage. Cheap loans come to an end.

The bank tightens its belt. The man bites the dog. To present a healthy balance sheet this 2017 will require commercial gear to cover the holes derived from the last batch of judicial sentences.

The banks are going to loose pasta and stop entering it. Bad equation. The more for Spanish entities, whose blood flows from mortgage credit, which represents up to 50% of their market share.

And, to provision those millions of euros, banks are looking to improve the profitability of their products.

Mortgages have begun to rise in the first eight weeks of the year
Mortgages have begun to rise in the first eight weeks of the year. And slight rebounds are still expected in 2017 and 2018, the last year in which the European Central Bank is set to raise interest rates, which will hit the Euribor, the indicator to which most of the Mortgages in Spain.

The Spanish model is going to mutate. A change of trend begins to appear. Fear of recurring situations such as soil clauses, upward forecasts on interest rates, specifically on the euríbor ... The monthly fixed rate likes more and more. Faced with unforeseen fluctuations, the mortgaged is folded at the fixed rate. Without being still majority, these mortgages were multiplied by four in 2016.

In December alone, 31.6% of the mortgages constituted used a fixed interest rate, compared to 68.4% of the variable, in data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE). Almost half of the mortgaged Spaniards changed at a fixed rate, to double the number of loans, from 7.6% to 14.8%, while variable interest rates fell from 91.5% to 84.3%. They are still favorites, but according to progress 2017 will lose fans.

A fixed, a variable, with a mixed model or to play. One in three mortgages in 2016 was paid in cash. In numbers: 403,866 homes sold and 281,328 loans contracted, in INE data.

Spanish mortgages are already more expensive than in Europe. In Spain they are granted 1.97% on average compared to 1.62% in Germany, 1.55% in France or 1.82% in Portugal.

MORTGAGE MORTGAGES

A fixed type, and up. Only five banks already grant mortgages below the psychological threshold of 3%. Most are between 3% and 4%, still 6% and 7% a few years ago, when variables were spoiled by the boom banking.

Fixed rates will rise further in the coming months, "but in moderation," David Ruiz of International Financial Analysts (Afi) points out. In INE data, in January 2016 only 10% of the new mortgages were fixed rate. However, in September of the same year the figure has increased to 30%.

MORTGAGES TO VARIABLE TYPE

Banks prepare mortgage loans with opening fees, a hitherto higher rate on fixed mortgages. The measure is a guideline of the Bank of Spain, but helps to curb losses by negative rates.

The Euríbor has been in free fall since April 2014, which has benefited thousands of mortgaged people who have seen their monthly quota year-on-year. But everything has its end. With the entry into force of the Euribor Plus in July this year, mortgages will be more expensive. The rise will not make a hole in the pocket, most likely to be testimonials for the majority but for the first time in four years the fee will not go down. For significant increases, we will have to wait for 2018 and even 2019, in forecasts of David Ruiz of Afi.

The mileuristas have it more difficult to accede to the mortgages. Among the 10 cheapest mortgages on the market, only two offers do not require a minimum wage to hire them. Thus, for a medium mortgage in Spain (109,785 euros at 22 years), a consumer who could access the best mortgages on the market would pay an average initial interest of 0.99%. A single person earning a thousand euros a month would only have direct access to mortgages with an average interest of 1.15%, 16.16% more than the cheapest deals on the market.

The banks will freeze the interests of their loans at variable rates and if they move they will be upwards. In this situation, the sector will persevere in mortgages with an initial fixed rate, the first or the first two years. 80% of variable rate mortgages already have an initial fixed interest rate. David Ruiz attributes this to the need, also on the part of the bank, to guarantee a mortgage income, after the margins have waned since the bursting of the real estate boom.